El Niño is "one of the reasons why we don't put out a formal forecast with numbers in December is because there's a tremendous amount that can change," Klotzbach said in an interview with. This could mean that one of the favorable factors that led to the crazy busy hurricane season this year may not be in play in the upcoming hurricane season, potentially lowering the number of storms.īut ENSO is only one factor that determines how hurricane season will go. The team at Colorado State University is currently hinging on this idea and that El Niño will not develop next hurricane season, which would require faster warming of the Pacific than currently forecast. Figure courtesy of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. By the time hurricane season heats up, in July, August and September (JAS, located at the right of the below diagram), water temperatures should be warm enough to be considered at least neutral.ĮNSO model prediction plume from mid-November for the next several months. Most modeling suggests that the Pacific will gradually warm through this preparation season and into the first half of hurricane season. So the question is, where will water temperatures be during the upcoming hurricane season? La Niña typically allows for more favorable atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic while its counterpart pattern, El Niño, typically allows fewer tropical storms and hurricanes to form. This co-operative oceanic/atmospheric occurrence is one of the reasons that this past hurricane season was record-breakingly busy. Water temperatures have cooled in the Pacific since this past summer in a phenomenon called La Niña. Klotzbach says are key to figuring out how busy next season will be are both related to water – the status of El Niño Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) and how water temperatures in the northern Atlantic change in the next year. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will issue their initial seasonal outlook in May.The two such drivers that Dr. The 2022 hurricane season will begin on June 1. It eventually weakened and was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone over the far North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Iceland.
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